The Central Oreconundrum Story
By Bill Dahl
All Rights Reserved
Finally, somebody has said it in print. Timothy Duy, a University of Oregon economist stated in the Bend Bulletin (page A-5 – column 2) on Sunday August 30th that:
“Oregon should revamp its economic development strategy.”
This story went on to disparage the fact that the State of Oregon’s unemployment rates have been touted as second only to the State of Michigan, due primarily in the way the sampling was performed. In the Business section of this same edition pages G-1 and G-5), the Bulletin (with Duy’s tutelage) produces the Central Oregon Business Index where a number of quantitative measures are interpreted. Duy goes on to say, “All bubbles are built on an underlying truth, and there was a good story fueling this bubble – that there had been fairly strong growth over a long period of time based on the region’s attractiveness as a place to live and do business.” Going back to the story on page A-5, Duy says that “Oregon is still and attractive place to live and that the economic woes of central Oregon could actually work to its advantage because a surplus of affordable new housing in and around Bend will make it more appealing to businesses looking for a new home.”
Are you confused by the story line above? Don’t worry, you’ve got a boat load of company. Here are a couple of things Duy’s comments prompted in my mind:
1. “Bubbles are built on an underlying truth.” That’s simply patently absurd. Bubbles are built on myth and illusion – that’s why they call them bubbles. They’re not real…no matter how many millions of people succumb to the fantasy.
2. Businesses considering relocation have priorities that the states/regions/municipalities they are considering must possess. Availability of suitable land at or below comparable pricing of commercial real estate in other locales, tax issues, transportation, cost of energy and a whole cadre of other issues. Affordable housing for employees is most certainly a consideration – yet, one that is typically down the list of the initial priorities when evaluating the merits of business relocation. Wait a minute! It wasn’t too long ago that central Oregonians were being told the price of housing and available workforce were tangible impediments to attracting new companies to this region. Well, Katie bar the door! With the tri-county area in central Oregon achieving double-digit rates of unemployment (some of the highest in the State) and the glut of affordable housing on the market, should we be expecting an immediate inflow of companies relocating to our region?
3. To purchase a home assumes that one has a stable income. Stable incomes are derived from well-established and growing employment markets that offer wages whereby one can obtain a mortgage.
What’s wrong with this story? Listen to the following:
“The human mind is built to think in terms of narratives, of sequences of events with an integral logic and dynamic that appear as a unified whole. In turn, much of human motivation comes from living through a story of our lives, a story we tell to ourselves and that creates a framework for motivation. Life could be “just one damn thing after another” if it weren’t for these stories. The same is true for confidence in a nation, a company, or an institution. Great leaders are first and foremost creators of stories.” [i]
Here’s my question: What’s our story central Oregon – Redmond?
If, as it has been said, ideas come and go, stories stay,[ii] – what’s the story?
Macroeconomics, as portrayed in the August 30th edition of the Bend Bulletin, one might be susceptible to succumbing to the sheer beauty and mystery of the mathematical portrayals and the inter-related interpretations thereof. However, this particular story stirred dissatisfaction within me, in terms of the superficial, self-serving and salutary discussion. As one author cautions us:
“It’s all about keeping evaluations tentative instead of certain, learning to be comfortable with complex, sometimes contradictory information, and taking your time and considering things from different angles before coming to a conclusion”[iii] — it is at this juncture where we may fall prey to the diagnostic bias – “our propensity to label people, ideas or things based on our initial opinions of them — and our inability to reconsider those judgments once we’ve made them.”[iv]
Well, what’s our story? I cannot settle for the story being propagated in today’s Bulletin. Perhaps this is an important part of the economic conundrum we face in central Oregon. Maybe we need to focus on developing another story – a vastly better story that energizes people, provides hope, infuses innovation, new forms of collaboration and a vision for the formation of a regional economic mosaic that the current story is incapable of spawning. To steal an appropriate quote from another author (who likely stole it from someone else), this point is succinctly captured in the following: “As they say in Texas: “If all you ever do is all you’ve ever done, then all you’ll ever get is all you ever got.”[v]
Some will scoff and even mock the suggestions herein. Others, may not read this far. Yet, others who do listen to what is being said here will garner an appreciation that, “Words — spoken and listened to, written and read — are intended to do something in us, give health and wholeness, vitality and holiness, wisdom and hope.” [vi] I hope for a better future for Redmond and this region. Admittedly, I am not an economist. But I am a citizen exercising his right to speak about matters that are important to me, and many others. The following provides some context for where I am coming from:
“The last few decades have belonged to a certain kind of person with a certain kind of mind — computer programmers who could crank code, lawyers who could craft contracts, MBA’s who could crunch numbers. But the keys to the kingdom are changing hands. The future belongs to a very different kind of person with a very different kind of mind — creators and empathizers, pattern recognizers, and meaning makers. These people – artists, inventors, designers, storytellers, caregivers, consolers, big picture thinkers — will now reap society’s richest rewards and share its greatest joys.” [vii]
Should we accept the challenge of creating this new story, we must stay informed as to the thought processes that are breaching old boundaries from researchers, authors and academia. Why is paying attention to the thinkers so important? Listen to the following:
“To understand how economies work and how we can manage them and prosper, we must pay attention to the thought patterns that animate people’s ideas and feelings — We will never really understand important economic events unless we confront the fact that their causes are largely mental in nature.”[viii]
Finally, I will end with this:
“At a certain level, when it comes to the future, the only thing one can be sure of is that common sense will be wrong.”[ix]
Perhaps it’s time for some uncommon sense to be injected in editing the story line of the central Oregon Econundrum?
What’s your story?
Gotta pen?
NOTES:
[i] Akerlof, George A. and Shiller, Robert J. – Animal Spirits – How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters For Global Capitalism, Princeton University Press Princeton, NJ USA and Oxford, UK Copyright © 2009 by Princeton University Press, p. 51.
[ii] Taleb, Nassim Nicholas The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable – Random House, Inc. New York, New York Copyright © 2007 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb p. xxvii
[iii] Brafman, Ori and Rom – SWAY – The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior – Doubleday – A Division of Random House, Inc. – New York, New York, Copyright © by Ori and Ron Brafman.p. 178.
[iv] Ibid p. 70.
[v] Friedman, Thomas L. – Hot, Flat and Crowded – Why We Need A Green Revolution and How It Can Renew America, Farrar,Strauss & Giroux New York, New York Copyright © 2008 by Thomas L. Friedman, p. 6.
[vi] Peterson, Eugene H. – Eat This Book – A Conversation in the Art of Spiritual Reading, Wm. B. Eerdsman Publishing Company, Grand Rapids, Michigan Copyright © 2006 by Eugene H. Peterson, p. 21.
[vii] Pink, Daniel H. – A Whole New Mind – Moving From the Information Age to the Conceptual Age, Riverhead Books – Penguin Group (USA) Inc. New York, New York Copyright © 2005 by Daniel H. Pink, p. 1.
[viii] Akerlof, George A. and Shiller, Robert J. – Animal Spirits – How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters For Global Capitalism, Princeton University Press Princeton, NJ USA and Oxford, UK Copyright © 2009 by Princeton University Press, p. 1.
[ix] Friedman, George – The Next 100 Years – A Forecast for the 21st Century – Doubleday – A Division of Random House, Inc. – New York, New York, Copyright © 2009 by George Friedman, p. 3.
