Book Review: The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

the-black-swan

Finished “The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb recently. This is a tough read. Clearly an incredibly intelligent man with some terribly worthwhile insights. However, my gut tells me that for most folk s, the majority would fall asleep before they got through a chapter. For those seeking a challenging, intellectually stimulating read, this book is a treasure. For people in a variety of disciplines his insights are vigorously important.

I adore this excerpt that basically characterizes the premise of the book:

“The Black Swan problem in its original form: How can we know the future , given knowkedge of the past; or, more generally, how can we figure out properties of the (infinite) unknown based on the (finite) known? — what can a turkeylearn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps, but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that “little less” that may make all the difference. The turkey problem can be generalized to any situation where the same hand that feeds you can be the one that wrings your neck” p. 40.

If one considers the explanations for the current/ongoing economic malaise in the U.S., we continue to attempt to regain our balance after having our necks wrung by hands that we had thought were nurturing prosperity.

Taleb’s boundary breaking contribution here adds to the credibility of the recent work of Yale’s Robert Shiller and UC Berkeley’s George Akerloff….there is vastly more to be learned in the field of economics its relationship to human behavior. As Taleb p0ints out:

“Cognitive scientists have studied our natural tendency to look only for corroboration; they call this vulnerability to the corroboration error the conformation bias.” p. 58.

Perhaps the conundrum of the current recession will cause practicioners, researchers and academics to garner the courage to begin to move beyond what we thought we knew in terms of economics and human behavior. Taleb says:

“Once your mind is inhabited by a certain view of the world, you will tend to only conmsider instances proving you to be right. Paradoxically, the more informastion you have, the more justified you feel in your views.” p.59.

This book encourages one to “intellectually reach” – to be emboldened to take up avenues of inquiry, in a multiplicity of disciplines, that require spanning the boundaries of what we think we know, and how we know so….to begin to question the comfort and complacency that inhabit the essence of the term self-righteous – smugly ignorant in the comfort of where we find ourselves, our professions and the community of mankind.

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